TÁRKI is Hungary's representative in the policy-oriented research Ageing, Health Status and Determinants of Health Expenditure (AHEAD). The project (which falls within the ENEPRI network) seeks to refine the existing estimates of the links between reported states of health and use of medical services. As well as looking at the effects of ageing on health care, the research considers the link between health expenditure and fertility rates, and the demands placed on health services by non-native populations. Particular attention is paid to the cost of care near death. A study will be made of the factors other than demand (such as methods of financial control) that may influence health spending. An important aspect of this research is that the work is being carried out in such a way as to provide not only the familiar projections and scenarios, but also standard deviations and confidence limits for the prediction of key variables such as healthy life expectancy and demand-driven expenditure levels.
With the general goal of 'investigating into different key factors driving health care expenditures and in particular their interaction with particular reference to ageing', the Strategic Objectives of AHEAD are:
- An assessment of pressures on health spending in the existing EU and in selected candidate countries, looking both at those arising directly from ageing and at those affected by changing incomes, social change and methods of expenditure control.
- The development of models embedded in EXCEL spreadsheets for projecting future health spending.
- Estimation of confidence limits for these projections.