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11 February 2016

Trends in party support: Happy new year of Viktor Orban's party alliance

After Fidesz easily won three nation-wide general elections in 2014, more than a year ago, in autumn of 2014 we reported the fall of popularity of Fidesz-KDNP governing coalition. A year after we registered an opposite tendency since the hot summer of 2015. 22 percent of potential voters of Viktor Orban's party in July has grown to 31 percent of the electorate in January, 2016. Most of the political observers would agree that this trend can be attributed to the evolution of migration crisis and its government handling. In the autumn Hungary erected temporal fence on the frontier with Serbia and Croatia and consequently the number of migrants entering the country dwindled from above 10k daily to about zero. Meanwhile left-leaning and centrist parties could not increase their support. Hungarian Socialist Party has been overtaken by Jobbik, the radical right party. As figure below shows, it is better to say that the socialists have lost their support rather than Jobbik's camp grew. Still there is a good chance that Jobbik will emerge as Fidesz's main challenger in 2018 parliamentary election. However, much water will flow in the Danube until then as a Hungarian proverb says for the unpredictable future.

Support for major political parties in Hungary amongst the total population (%)
chart
Source: Tarki Omnibus surveys, 10/2014-01/2016